US Presidential Election – LIVE market analysis

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8 November 2016


Election feed

4:30, 09.11

Trump set to win US Presidential Election

“As these lines are written, Trump appears set to win the US Presidential Election.
The immediate market reaction has been very negative. The Mexican Peso has suffered the most, down over 10%, with US stocks also falling 4-5% and the Euro rallying against the US Dollar by about 2%.”

– Enrique Diaz-Alvarez @EnriqueDiazAlva, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury

04:01, 09.11

The chance of a US interest rate hike drops

“Odds on a December Federal Reserve interest rate hike have fallen to 68%, a rather modest fall compared to the moves we are seeing elsewhere. In addition to the falls in financial markets, Fed speeches in the coming days will be critical to ascertain the impact of a Trump victory on the FOMC outlook.
Fischer’s speech on November 11th is the first such communication. Markets will be listening closely.”

– Enrique Diaz-Alvarez @EnriqueDiazAlva, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury

03:23, 09.11

Odds favour Trump victory

“What a shocking turnaround. Very few key states have been called outright with Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan all too close to call and North Carolina and Florida very likely to go to Trump. The odds now clearly favour a Trump victory, against our forecasts and market consensus. The Mexican Peso has crashed down 10%, US stocks down 5% and EUR/USD up a subdued 1.5%. Markets have clearly been caught wrong-footed.”

– Enrique Diaz-Alvarez @EnriqueDiazAlva, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury

02:50, 09.11

Will the result be called tonight?

“There is a non negligible chance the race won’t get called tonight. Not just Florida but other key states look very close. At any event, it’s going to be razor thin either way.
Mexican Peso down 7%, US stocks down 3%, EUR/USD with a more modest move of 1%.”

– Enrique Diaz-Alvarez @EnriqueDiazAlva, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury

02:47, 09.11

Trump 50/50 to win

“Tonight’s election is beginning to take on a very familiar Brexit feel. Donald Trump, whose chances of victory were almost completely discounted in the early exit polls, is now 50/50 to win with almost every major bookmaker and is polling strongly in all of the swing states. Trump is currently 4% ahead in the popular vote and, while this counts for nothing, it shows how badly the night has gone so far for Hillary Clinton. There’s still a long way to go.
Investors have panicked on the back of the news, piling into the Yen (up 2.5%) and selling off the Mexican Peso which is currently down over 7% for the day.”

– Matthew Ryan @mryan815, Strategy Analyst at Ebury

02:08, 09.11

Florida hangs in the balance

“Looks like our predictions for a relatively early night were off and this is going to be a nail biter. Florida remains tight with results indicating high turnout in Republican-leaning rural areas and Trump needs a lot of that to overcome Clinton’s advantage. No surprises anywhere else so far. Markets frankly nervous, with MXN and S&P futures now down for the day.”

– Enrique Diaz-Alvarez @EnriqueDiazAlva, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury

01:12, 09.11

Time to go home?

“No reason to change our tune. Clinton’s lead in Florida is small but persistent with just 20% of the vote left to count. She’s leading in every swing state except Virginia. We may be going home early.”

– Enrique Diaz-Alvarez @EnriqueDiazAlva, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury

00:54, 09.11

Safe Republican seats under threat

“It’s looking really grim for Trump. Safe Republican states like Georgia are still too close to call and Clinton has built a small lead in Florida, but with a lot of the votes (30%) counted. Success in Florida would more or less seal election victory for Clinton. Trump started this election behind and needs good electoral news to turn it around. None so far.”

– Enrique Diaz-Alvarez @EnriqueDiazAlva, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury

17:20, 08.11

Real-time voting patterns

“Some unusually early action in the markets. US Dollar and Mexican Peso rally on news that a first-ever attempt to track real-time voting patterns is showing Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead in most swing states. Good news for the Democrats but bear in mind that the technique is completely untested.”

– Enrique Diaz-Alvarez @EnriqueDiazAlva, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury


Live market analysis

From midnight on Wednesday 9th November, we’ll be running live commentary on the results of the US election and the impact it’s having on the currency markets.

Our dealing teams and market analysts are working overnight to support businesses through the expected currency market volatility.

Check back to this post for live currency insight from midnight, keeping you up to date with market fluctuations.

In the meantime, read our US Presidential Election Guide for the latest analysis.